Post by elp525 on Sept 21, 2011 4:40:13 GMT -5
September 20, 2011
By Dave Hickman
The Charleston Gazette
MORGANTOWN -- One high-ranking West Virginia official referred to it as "the highest-stakes poker game I've ever been involved in.''
And on the surface, it appears that West Virginia is running out of cards to play.
With conference realignment falling all around it, WVU is going to be a party to whatever happens. But unless Oliver Luck and Jim Clements have some aces up their sleeves, the only realignment the Mountaineers appear destined for is the one that reshapes the Big East.
Are you ready for some Big 12 football? And basketball? And soccer and swimming and track?
But, hey, even that now looks doubtful.
Are you ready for some ... well, who knows? Right now it looks like West Virginia's only option is to stay in the Big East and the Big East's only option is to, well, fight for survival again. Maybe a service academy or two. East Carolina anyone? Central Florida?
You know the drill.
All of this, of course, stems from published reports Tuesday that indicated West Virginia is not on the list of prospective members of the SEC or the ACC. No WVU official would confirm that, but here's the reason for that: The school never applied.
So they can honestly say that they were never denied entry.
The fact is, though, it's just not done that way. Forget this nonsense of papers being filed and all that.
This is all done with behind-the-scenes wrangling and secret meetings and clandestine phone calls. West Virginia's people talk with the SEC's people or the ACC's people. They gauge interest. They tout their virtues. Maybe they bad-mouth anyone else considered to be at the table.
And in the end, eventually someone at the league level either agrees and takes the issue to the presidents or tells you, "You might want to look elsewhere.''
If West Virginia was, indeed, told it would be better to look elsewhere, well, that ends that. For now. The way this changes day to day and week to week, next week could bring a change of heart. But for now, it looks bleak.
So what does West Virginia do? Well, Tuesday night it went to a meeting of Big East power brokers in New York. The reception for two of the schools at the meeting -- UConn and Rutgers -- likely was cold. Those two could be the next to join Pitt and Syracuse on the path to Tobacco Road.
West Virginia, for its part, probably wasn't too happy with the Big East, either, because it was someone there who leaked the story that the ACC and SEC had rebuffed the Mountaineers. It was likely good for Big East business, showing that West Virginia is still a member, but bad for the image of the Mountaineers.
So what happens now? Well, anything could happen. And what seems likely today might not be nearly as plausible tomorrow or next week.
A day or so ago, a Big East-Big 12 merger seemed likely. Today it seems less so. Maybe the Big 12 stays together now. Who knows?
If the world were to simply stop turning right now -- at least the conference realignment part of the world -- West Virginia would be in what amounts to a seven-team football league that still includes UConn and Rutgers. TCU comes on board next year. Maybe others.
It's all fluid, though. If the Big 12 backtracks and melts down again, the whole merger thing is back on the table.
Know, though, that while it would be a Big East/Big 12 hybrid, it would likely be under the banner of the Big 12 or some entirely new umbrella. It won't be the Big East, because the non-FBS football schools would keep the name -- and presumably the staff, the offices and everything else -- and function simply as a basketball league. What goes around comes around, right?
Then again, tune back tomorrow and it could all be different.
nn
Hey, I know it doesn't seem plausible right now, but just for kicks and giggles, let's for a moment consider what a Big East/Big 12 merger league would look like. Not saying it will, but let's just imagine.
And let's also say there are no surprise additions, like Boise State or a service academy or two, or East Carolina or any of the other usual suspects.
Let's also assume, just for the sake of argument, that Connecticut and Rutgers bail to the ACC and Missouri finds a home elsewhere. And, of course, Oklahoma and that group would have bailed for the Pac 12.
I know. A lot of ifs. But who is to say what is and isn't possible when things change so quickly.
Anyway, so what do you have? In addition to West Virginia there would be Big East leftovers South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati, Big 12 refugees Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor. That's eight schools, same as today. Throw in TCU next year and that's nine, just as it was supposed to be.
All right, so that's by no means a powerhouse football lineup, right? (Although basketball would still be pretty good with WVU, Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State, etc.) We can all agree on that.
I did, however, want to put some numbers to the football side and you might be surprised how that reconstituted league fares against the current Big East lineup. Or against the ACC now and in the future.
I used the Sagarin ratings, which are certainly not the end-all to football rankings, but it's probably as good as it gets right now in terms of any available formula that on this day ranks all 120 FBS teams. And my formula was very simple. I took the ranking of each school that would be a part of each conference assemblage (WVU, for instance, is No. 16, Kansas is No. 69) and averaged them to get a feel not for how strong the top of a league might be or how weak the bottom, but where the league average was.
So here goes:
| The schools that would form the "new'' Big East/Big 12 have an average Sagarin rating of No. 40.89 today. Even without TCU (ranked No. 14), the group has an average rating of 44.25.
| The current eight Big East schools have an average rating of 48.63. Add TCU to the mix and the average is 44.78.
| The 12 current ACC schools have an average rating of 47.0. Throw in Pitt and Syracuse and the average climbs to 47.79. Add UConn and Rutgers and it's up to 49.75.
Again, this might not be the best way to judge the strength of a conference. It fails to illustrate what might be a powerhouse top of the bracket and maybe weaklings at the bottom unfairly drag some numbers down (Boston College is No. 118 and Duke No. 102, by far the worst in any of the configurations).
Still, it does provide some sort of measuring stick for what the leagues as a whole would present.
And isn't it interesting that the "new'' Big East/Big 12 -- with or without TCU -- rates higher than any other combination in those two leagues?
By Dave Hickman
The Charleston Gazette
MORGANTOWN -- One high-ranking West Virginia official referred to it as "the highest-stakes poker game I've ever been involved in.''
And on the surface, it appears that West Virginia is running out of cards to play.
With conference realignment falling all around it, WVU is going to be a party to whatever happens. But unless Oliver Luck and Jim Clements have some aces up their sleeves, the only realignment the Mountaineers appear destined for is the one that reshapes the Big East.
Are you ready for some Big 12 football? And basketball? And soccer and swimming and track?
But, hey, even that now looks doubtful.
Are you ready for some ... well, who knows? Right now it looks like West Virginia's only option is to stay in the Big East and the Big East's only option is to, well, fight for survival again. Maybe a service academy or two. East Carolina anyone? Central Florida?
You know the drill.
All of this, of course, stems from published reports Tuesday that indicated West Virginia is not on the list of prospective members of the SEC or the ACC. No WVU official would confirm that, but here's the reason for that: The school never applied.
So they can honestly say that they were never denied entry.
The fact is, though, it's just not done that way. Forget this nonsense of papers being filed and all that.
This is all done with behind-the-scenes wrangling and secret meetings and clandestine phone calls. West Virginia's people talk with the SEC's people or the ACC's people. They gauge interest. They tout their virtues. Maybe they bad-mouth anyone else considered to be at the table.
And in the end, eventually someone at the league level either agrees and takes the issue to the presidents or tells you, "You might want to look elsewhere.''
If West Virginia was, indeed, told it would be better to look elsewhere, well, that ends that. For now. The way this changes day to day and week to week, next week could bring a change of heart. But for now, it looks bleak.
So what does West Virginia do? Well, Tuesday night it went to a meeting of Big East power brokers in New York. The reception for two of the schools at the meeting -- UConn and Rutgers -- likely was cold. Those two could be the next to join Pitt and Syracuse on the path to Tobacco Road.
West Virginia, for its part, probably wasn't too happy with the Big East, either, because it was someone there who leaked the story that the ACC and SEC had rebuffed the Mountaineers. It was likely good for Big East business, showing that West Virginia is still a member, but bad for the image of the Mountaineers.
So what happens now? Well, anything could happen. And what seems likely today might not be nearly as plausible tomorrow or next week.
A day or so ago, a Big East-Big 12 merger seemed likely. Today it seems less so. Maybe the Big 12 stays together now. Who knows?
If the world were to simply stop turning right now -- at least the conference realignment part of the world -- West Virginia would be in what amounts to a seven-team football league that still includes UConn and Rutgers. TCU comes on board next year. Maybe others.
It's all fluid, though. If the Big 12 backtracks and melts down again, the whole merger thing is back on the table.
Know, though, that while it would be a Big East/Big 12 hybrid, it would likely be under the banner of the Big 12 or some entirely new umbrella. It won't be the Big East, because the non-FBS football schools would keep the name -- and presumably the staff, the offices and everything else -- and function simply as a basketball league. What goes around comes around, right?
Then again, tune back tomorrow and it could all be different.
nn
Hey, I know it doesn't seem plausible right now, but just for kicks and giggles, let's for a moment consider what a Big East/Big 12 merger league would look like. Not saying it will, but let's just imagine.
And let's also say there are no surprise additions, like Boise State or a service academy or two, or East Carolina or any of the other usual suspects.
Let's also assume, just for the sake of argument, that Connecticut and Rutgers bail to the ACC and Missouri finds a home elsewhere. And, of course, Oklahoma and that group would have bailed for the Pac 12.
I know. A lot of ifs. But who is to say what is and isn't possible when things change so quickly.
Anyway, so what do you have? In addition to West Virginia there would be Big East leftovers South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati, Big 12 refugees Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor. That's eight schools, same as today. Throw in TCU next year and that's nine, just as it was supposed to be.
All right, so that's by no means a powerhouse football lineup, right? (Although basketball would still be pretty good with WVU, Louisville, Kansas, Kansas State, etc.) We can all agree on that.
I did, however, want to put some numbers to the football side and you might be surprised how that reconstituted league fares against the current Big East lineup. Or against the ACC now and in the future.
I used the Sagarin ratings, which are certainly not the end-all to football rankings, but it's probably as good as it gets right now in terms of any available formula that on this day ranks all 120 FBS teams. And my formula was very simple. I took the ranking of each school that would be a part of each conference assemblage (WVU, for instance, is No. 16, Kansas is No. 69) and averaged them to get a feel not for how strong the top of a league might be or how weak the bottom, but where the league average was.
So here goes:
| The schools that would form the "new'' Big East/Big 12 have an average Sagarin rating of No. 40.89 today. Even without TCU (ranked No. 14), the group has an average rating of 44.25.
| The current eight Big East schools have an average rating of 48.63. Add TCU to the mix and the average is 44.78.
| The 12 current ACC schools have an average rating of 47.0. Throw in Pitt and Syracuse and the average climbs to 47.79. Add UConn and Rutgers and it's up to 49.75.
Again, this might not be the best way to judge the strength of a conference. It fails to illustrate what might be a powerhouse top of the bracket and maybe weaklings at the bottom unfairly drag some numbers down (Boston College is No. 118 and Duke No. 102, by far the worst in any of the configurations).
Still, it does provide some sort of measuring stick for what the leagues as a whole would present.
And isn't it interesting that the "new'' Big East/Big 12 -- with or without TCU -- rates higher than any other combination in those two leagues?
