Post by elp525 on Feb 16, 2011 10:28:39 GMT -5
February 15, 2011
By Mitch Vingle
The Charleston Gazette
It was almost exactly a month ago when, in this space, I tackled the bear.
OK, it wasn't a real bear. That would have been ugly. Instead, I tackled the subject of the bear of a schedule before West Virginia's basketball team.
At that time, the Mountaineers were sitting pretty at the halfway point of their season. They'd just slapped around Providence, winning by 30 points. They were about to take down a ranked Purdue team. They were sitting just outside the Top 25. Their Rating Percentage Index was high.
Today, WVU is coming off a 63-52 loss to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The team has dropped three of its last four games. It has lost five of its last nine.
If you wish to point to the defeat to Marshall as the decline's birth, you may. That was the start.
It would be more correct, however, to point to the proverbial bear - and understand not much has changed for the Mountaineers from a month ago. Maybe the players' body language. Maybe their confidence. They certainly seem more tentative these days.
But in regard to the team's overall situation, its overall status, there's not much difference. As a matter of fact, the status may have improved.
Allow me to explain. At that time, I pointed to the brutal schedule in front of coach Bob Huggins and his men. I said WVU could finish with 20 victories. I showed that, in fact, the Mountaineers were favored to do so. But I also said there was a very real possibility they could finish the regular season with a 16-14 mark.
They now sit at 16-9 with five regular season games remaining. Odds are, the team will win at least another game.
In fact, the odds are West Virginia
will still win 20. At least, the odds according to the Sagarin computer ratings.
I used those ratings a month ago. And the Mountaineers followed the script with two exceptions. First, WVU fell to Marshall. Second, it defeated Cincinnati. Those were the only unexpected outcomes.
Those two outcomes, however, must have canceled out each other. If you check the latest Rating Percentage Index, which purportedly has been used when the NCAA makes its tournament selections, the Mountaineers were No. 22 even after Monday's defeat.
Sure, West Virginia needs to win from here on out to make the grade. If, however, the Mountaineers simply continue to do what's expected, they'll be fine.
Here's the deal. On Saturday, Notre Dame visits WVU Coliseum for a pivotal Big East game. Everything inside me screams it's the team's biggest game of the season. A victory over the hot Fighting Irish could propel West Virginia down the tough season-ending stretch.
The fact, however, is it's not the biggest game. Yes, a win could propel the Mountaineers. But wasn't that the thought coming out of the team's victory over DePaul? Wasn't the thought, hey, the team found its shooting touch?
Instead, WVU did exactly as expected: lose to Syracuse.
According to the Sagarin ratings, the Mountaineers should be favored on Saturday by a point. CBS will be in the house. The Coliseum will be packed. The place should be jumping. WVU should win.
On Feb. 24, the Mountaineers visit Pittsburgh. The ratings say they'll enter the Steel City as 11-point underdogs. More than likely, they'll lose.
The rest of the games? WVU should be favored (as of Tuesday, the ratings said by three) at Rutgers on Feb. 27. On March 2 and 5, the Mountaineers play host to Connecticut and Louisville. The ratings indicate WVU will be favored in both, by two and three, respectively.
If Huggins' crew simply holds to form, doing exactly what's expected, it will finish 20-10.
I know. Kids do the darndest things. And, yes, you can go back and point to unexpected outcomes earlier in the season. The home loss to St. John's. The road win at Georgetown. Yet it always seems to balance.
WVU has been everything - not more, not less - than expected. And if it continues the trend, it should be fine come NCAA tournament time.
By Mitch Vingle
The Charleston Gazette
It was almost exactly a month ago when, in this space, I tackled the bear.
OK, it wasn't a real bear. That would have been ugly. Instead, I tackled the subject of the bear of a schedule before West Virginia's basketball team.
At that time, the Mountaineers were sitting pretty at the halfway point of their season. They'd just slapped around Providence, winning by 30 points. They were about to take down a ranked Purdue team. They were sitting just outside the Top 25. Their Rating Percentage Index was high.
Today, WVU is coming off a 63-52 loss to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The team has dropped three of its last four games. It has lost five of its last nine.
If you wish to point to the defeat to Marshall as the decline's birth, you may. That was the start.
It would be more correct, however, to point to the proverbial bear - and understand not much has changed for the Mountaineers from a month ago. Maybe the players' body language. Maybe their confidence. They certainly seem more tentative these days.
But in regard to the team's overall situation, its overall status, there's not much difference. As a matter of fact, the status may have improved.
Allow me to explain. At that time, I pointed to the brutal schedule in front of coach Bob Huggins and his men. I said WVU could finish with 20 victories. I showed that, in fact, the Mountaineers were favored to do so. But I also said there was a very real possibility they could finish the regular season with a 16-14 mark.
They now sit at 16-9 with five regular season games remaining. Odds are, the team will win at least another game.
In fact, the odds are West Virginia
will still win 20. At least, the odds according to the Sagarin computer ratings.
I used those ratings a month ago. And the Mountaineers followed the script with two exceptions. First, WVU fell to Marshall. Second, it defeated Cincinnati. Those were the only unexpected outcomes.
Those two outcomes, however, must have canceled out each other. If you check the latest Rating Percentage Index, which purportedly has been used when the NCAA makes its tournament selections, the Mountaineers were No. 22 even after Monday's defeat.
Sure, West Virginia needs to win from here on out to make the grade. If, however, the Mountaineers simply continue to do what's expected, they'll be fine.
Here's the deal. On Saturday, Notre Dame visits WVU Coliseum for a pivotal Big East game. Everything inside me screams it's the team's biggest game of the season. A victory over the hot Fighting Irish could propel West Virginia down the tough season-ending stretch.
The fact, however, is it's not the biggest game. Yes, a win could propel the Mountaineers. But wasn't that the thought coming out of the team's victory over DePaul? Wasn't the thought, hey, the team found its shooting touch?
Instead, WVU did exactly as expected: lose to Syracuse.
According to the Sagarin ratings, the Mountaineers should be favored on Saturday by a point. CBS will be in the house. The Coliseum will be packed. The place should be jumping. WVU should win.
On Feb. 24, the Mountaineers visit Pittsburgh. The ratings say they'll enter the Steel City as 11-point underdogs. More than likely, they'll lose.
The rest of the games? WVU should be favored (as of Tuesday, the ratings said by three) at Rutgers on Feb. 27. On March 2 and 5, the Mountaineers play host to Connecticut and Louisville. The ratings indicate WVU will be favored in both, by two and three, respectively.
If Huggins' crew simply holds to form, doing exactly what's expected, it will finish 20-10.
I know. Kids do the darndest things. And, yes, you can go back and point to unexpected outcomes earlier in the season. The home loss to St. John's. The road win at Georgetown. Yet it always seems to balance.
WVU has been everything - not more, not less - than expected. And if it continues the trend, it should be fine come NCAA tournament time.
